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Oil isn’t the only commodity that’s been hit by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The world’s fertilizer supplies are also among the casualties.
About one third of global seaborne fertilizer trade, or 16 million tonnes per year, uses the narrow waterway. Like oil, that’s now reduced to zero.
The main producing countries, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, have all come under fire from Iran as the war rages. With the Strait closed, fertilizer prices are moving higher.
The world hasn’t taken much notice yet, but farmers, who are now preparing for spring planting, are already feeling the squeeze. Grocery store customers will experience it as new crops come to market.
The recent potash spot price was US$372.50 per tonne, representing a roughly 17% increase year-over-year. That’s a long way from the highs of over US$1,200 reached in April 2022, but the price is expected to increase significantly as the impact of the Strait of Hormuz blockade takes hold.
Canada exports about half of its fertilizer output and up to 90% of its potash to the U.S. That makes us an alternative for buyers whose Middle East supplies are cut off, providing supply chain disruptions can be overcome.
As it happens, the world’s largest producer of fertilizer is based in Saskatchewan. And it’s a recommendation of my Internet Wealth Builder newsletter.
Nutrien Corp. (TSX: NTR) is the world’s largest producers of agricultural fertilizers. Formed in 2018, it is the largest global producer of potash and a top-tier producer of nitrogen and phosphate. The company has a massive retail network of 2,000 stores across North America, South America, and Australia. It has roughly a 20% share of global potash sales and is the largest U.S. retailer of agricultural products, including fertilizers, crop chemicals, seeds, and other services to farmers.
The shares are up about 11% since the war broke out. Nutrien’s business was doing well long before the Iran war began. Fourth-quarter and year-end results for 2025 saw significant improvement over the previous 12 months, although some results were below estimates.
Fourth-quarter sales were $5.34 billion, up 5% from the same period the year before (the company reports in U.S. dollars). Net earnings were $580 million ($1.18 per diluted share) compared with $118 million ($0.31 per share) the year before. Earnings per share were 8% below consensus, with revenue and adjusted EBITDA each about 1% and 3% under estimates, respectively. The shortfall was due to softer pricing and volumes.
For the full year, Nutrien saw sales rise 4%, to $26.9 billion. Net earnings were $2.3 billion ($4.66 per share), up from $700 million ($1.36 per share) in 2024.
CEO Ken Seitz commented, “2025 was a defining year for our company, with exceptional performance across all our operating segments and a reduction in cost and capital expenditures that surpassed our targets. Alongside delivering structural free cash flow growth, we took decisive actions to optimize our portfolio, strengthen our balance sheet, and increase cash returns to shareholders,”
Nutrien pays a quarterly dividend of US$0.55 a share (US$2.20 a year) to yield 3.0% at the recent U.S. trading price of US$72.78.
It is also actively buying back stock, spending $551 million in 2025 to repurchase approximately 2% of shares outstanding. Nutrien’s board approved the purchase of up to 5% of outstanding common shares over a 12-month period through a new normal course issuer bid.
The company forecast flat to modest declines in sales of potash, nitrogen, and phosphate in 2026. But that was before the Middle East war broke out. No revised sales forecasts have been issued since, but demand is expected to increase substantially as prices rise now that up to a third of world fertilizer supply is bottled up in the Persian Gulf.
Bottom line, this is a profitable world-class company with a respectable dividend. The developments in the Middle East should serve to enhance its value.
The stock would be suitable for investors looking for a sustainable dividend and the prospect of a continued rise in the share price if the war goes on for any length of time.
Gordon Pape is one of Canada’s best-known personal finance commentators and investment experts. He is the publisher of The Internet Wealth Builder and The Income Investor newsletters, which are available through the Building Wealth website.
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Notes and Disclaimer
Content © 2026 by Gordon Pape Enterprises. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission. The foregoing is for general information purposes only and is the opinion of the writer. Securities mentioned carry risk of loss, and no guarantee of performance is made or implied. This information is not intended to provide specific personalized advice including, without limitation, investment, financial, legal, accounting, or tax advice. Always seek advice from your own financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Image: iStock.com/stevanovicigor
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