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Pender Corporate Bond Fund: hitting the sweet spot
10/22/2017 11:27:46 AM
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By Fund Library News Wire  | Friday, March 24, 2017


 



By Geoff Castle, Portfolio Manager, Pender Corporate Bond Fund

Low default risk and short duration are keys to attractive risk/reward in the current corporate credit market. There are two different scenarios that we consider when we try to mitigate the effects of risk in the Pender Corporate Bond Fund.

The two chief risks in the bond market – credit risk and duration risk

1. Credit risk is the risk that the company that is being lent money is unable to repay the obligation, and further, in the event of default, the risk that the sale of the business and its assets is insufficient to repay the obligation.

2. Duration risk is the risk that the price of a bond goes down, based on an increase in its yield to maturity.

How we address credit risk

We do several things in our fund that relatively few active managers do and no passive funds do, which are specifically focused on reducing units of credit risk per unit of expected return.

We employ default risk probability models. Primarily this means our use of Bloomberg “DRSK,” but we also look at other objective credit risk signals, such as Altman Z score, as well as credit default swap spreads where that makes sense. Risk probability models look at the measurable inputs of credit risk, including the following:

* How much working capital (cash, inventory and accounts receivable, net of short term payables) does a company have?

* How much value does the stock market assign to the equity of the company (which is, of course, subordinate to the bonds we own)?

* What is the level of cash flow currently being generated by the company?

* How much debt does the company have, relative to its assets and shareholder equity?

We find that credit ratings have shortcomings that have been well-documented and include conflicts of interest and being late to identify changes in a trend (up or down). We use default risk models because we believe they are a better predictor of defaults and of losses given default, than credit ratings.

We model each holding on a valuation basis to ensure that in the event of default our collateral value exceeds the price we pay for a bond.

Finally, we follow company reporting and newsflow carefully to ensure we are early to spot negative trends. We have a financial forecast for each holding. When we see actual results deviate from our expectations in a negative way, we are prepared and able to act quickly.

How we address duration risk

At a time when long-term interest rates are near an all-time low, we believe that duration risk is exceptionally high right now. Here is what we do to mitigate the effects of risk.

We run one of the shortest average effective durations of any bond fund in Canada. With average duration in the portfolio between 2.0 and 2.5 years, we have very little exposure to the big price swings that occur out on the long end of the “curve.”

We also own several securities with floating rates or rate reset provisions. At Oct. 31, 2016, the fund had an 11% weight in securities with a floating or reset component to the cash income we receive.

Long duration has a huge effect on the price swing from a rate rise. For instance, if the current 2-year U.S. Treasury bond yield increased by 1 percentage point, its price would decline by about 1.4%. But if the current 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yield increased by 1 percentage point, its price would decline by about 17%!

How do these efforts work in practice? How successful has the fund been in demonstrating effective risk management?

Last year was a good year to stress-test our performance under both a duration risk event and a credit risk event.

The following charts show how we did in each of those events. We believe our performance under both of these stresses has been relatively strong.

Duration risk. We had almost no risk from duration.

Credit risk. Our fund does have some credit risk. We have to take some credit risk in order to earn returns, and we believe that the risks we have taken have been worthwhile. With a YTD return of more than 8x our largest drawdown, we think our risk/reward equation has been very satisfactory and very competitive with any other fund in the income space. Note that the average return of the group of high-yield ETFs is only 2x their largest drawdown year to date to Oct. 31 2016.

Geoff Castle, MBA, is a Portfolio Manager at PenderFund Capital Management. Geoff Castle is an experienced investor in both public mutual funds and proprietary investment fund management for ultra-high net worth individuals. In addition, Mr. Castle’s background includes more than five years of industry experience in trade credit and general corporate management. As a fixed income manager, his focus has been on seeking enhanced yield opportunities in situations where substantial margins of safety exist. In particular, he has earned strong fixed income returns for clients in the recent low interest rate environment by focusing on “non-conforming” situations where yield opportunities existed despite otherwise attractive credit fundamentals. Mr. Castle holds a Bachelor of Arts degree from UBC and an MBA from the Richard Ivey School of Business at the University of Western Ontario. He is a member of the CFA Institute.

Notes and Disclaimer

© Copyright 2016 by PenderFund Capital Management Ltd. All rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part by any means without prior written permission is prohibited.

Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the simplified prospectus before investing. The indicated rates of return are the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in net asset value and assume reinvestment of all distributions and are net of all management and administrative fees, but do not take into account sales, redemption or optional charges or income taxes payable by any security holder that would have reduced returns. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. This communication is intended for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell our products or services nor is it intended as investment and/or financial advice on any subject matter and is provided for your information only. Every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of its contents. Certain of the statements made may contain forward-looking statements, which involve known and unknown risk, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of the Company, or industry results, to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements.

 
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